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The next four years and beyond

I would like to think that Bush’s election victory means that people have woken up to what I consider the core Republican values of a free market economy, limited government, and returning power to the states.

Unfortunately, I don’t believe that this is what the election was about. There were two things on people’s minds: foreign policy (that would be terrorism and the occupation of Iraq) and Christian values.

The Christian values thing was a big part of Bush’s victory. I don’t feel very passionate about a guy who has totally abandoned the Republican commitment to conservative economic and regulatory policies, but the Christians love the guy because he really believes in the religion (unlike Clinton who seemed to be pretending) and stands up for all of the key Christian issues (abortion, stem cell research, gay marriage, etc.). He won their hearts and minds and they turned out and voted for him.

I continue predict that the economy will grow worse during the next four years because all the bubbles of the Clinton nineties have yet to pop. And by 2008, Baby Boomer’s will be just beginning to retire, which will also have a depressive effect on the economy. Bush will be blamed for the bad economy (even though it’s only marginally his fault—I would say it’s not his fault at all except he has done nothing to simply the tax code or reduce regulations) with the likely result that a Democrat will win election in 2008. Of course the Democrat’s policies will only make things worse.

Other big problems on the horizon are rising oil prices due to irreversible declining production throughout the world, increased electricity costs due to foolish reliance on natural gas to meet nearly all of our country’s new electricity needs, the end of Moore’s law resulting in stagnation in the information technology industry, which is the key industry that has been driving our nation’s growth. There will be further exporting of jobs to low wage countries such as India and China.

It all looks pretty bleak. This is not a time to feel good about the future of America. Sorry for being so pessimistic.

posted Thursday, November 04, 2004